The business world is constantly changing, but the only constant is that those who can keenly identify trends and embrace innovation will always be at the forefront.
The business world of 2025 is undergoing profound transformation. As a retail complex operator, I've deeply felt the divergence and reshaping of the consumer market, with new technologies, new concepts, and new models constantly emerging.
In an era brimming with challenges and opportunities, grasping trends means mastering the key to success. Each one holds enormous business opportunities; seize one and you'll win!
- Global Economic Overview: A Year of Transition
2025 will be a critical turning point for the global economy. This year, transitional forces (such as economic slowdown, falling inflation, and lower interest rates) will outweigh the impact of Trump-era policies (including inflation concerns, budget deficits, and high interest rates driven by US policies). US inflation is projected to fall to 2.5%, and major central banks around the world are expected to cut interest rates. Specifically, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Thailand are expected to cut interest rates two, four, and three times, respectively. This series of measures will inject new vitality into the global economy and promote a smooth transition.
- Artificial Intelligence and Technology Lead Growth
In 2025, artificial intelligence and technology will continue to be the primary engines of global economic growth. Global IT investment is forecast to grow by 8% to $3.6 trillion. According to EY, 30% of US companies will invest more than $10 million in AI, a significant increase from 16% in 2024. However, Gartner warns that with increasing regulation, approximately 30% of AI projects may fail. On the hardware side, competition in the chip industry will intensify. Nvidia is expected to maintain its leading position in AI chips, competing fiercely with rivals such as Arm and Google. Meanwhile, countries are vying to attract chip manufacturing. TSMC will establish its first fab in the United States, while Micron plans to start production in India.
- Healthcare Sector Addresses the Challenge of an Aging Population
By 2025, the healthcare sector will face significant challenges from an aging global population. By then, people aged 65 and over will account for 12% of the world's total population. Although medical needs will continue to increase, global healthcare spending as a percentage of GDP is expected to fall to 10% from 11% during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts that global healthcare spending will reach $11 trillion, half of which will come from the United States. Regarding innovation, the World Health Organization (WHO) will focus on the impact of climate change on health. The pharmaceutical industry will see major breakthroughs, including the launch of affordable weight loss pills, vaccines for monkeypox, avian influenza, COVID-19, and mRNA cancer vaccines. Global pharmaceutical sales are expected to reach $1.7 trillion.
- Global energy consumption reaches a new high
Global energy consumption is expected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching a record high of 14.5 billion tons of oil equivalent, with fossil fuels remaining dominant, accounting for 80%. This will result in carbon emissions increasing 1.7 times compared to 1990 levels. Coal will continue to be the primary fuel in Asia, particularly in India and Russia. In the oil market, OPEC+ will maintain Brent crude oil prices between $75 and $77 per barrel by adjusting production.
The share of renewable energy in the global supply is projected to increase to 14%, with wind and solar power generating one-sixth of the world's electricity. Countries are actively expanding clean energy investments, such as solar farms in India, mini-grids in Zambia, and geothermal power plants in Texas. Thailand plans to increase its renewable energy share to 20%. Nuclear power will regain its dominance in Asia, particularly in China, which aims to produce 200,000 tons of green hydrogen annually.
- The Electrification Wave in the Automotive Industry
The global automotive industry is projected to grow by 2% by 2025, with electric vehicle (EV) sales expected to surge by nearly 25%. While range and high prices remain key concerns for consumers, this trend is unstoppable. Norway's ambitious plan to become the first country in the world to have all new cars be zero-emission by 2025 will undoubtedly set an example for other countries. At the same time, a growing number of cities will establish low-emission zones to promote sustainable transportation.
These forecasts not only reveal the direction of global economic and social development in the coming years but also provide valuable insights for various industries to better address the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.